The COVID-19 outbreak, which broke out around the world in 2020 and continues to this day, has largely changed the way people live and work. It has also had different impacts and impacts on various industries, and has gradually shaped a new social pattern. The pandemic is far from over, but the replacement of old and new industries has begun. How to invest in the post-epidemic era has become a topic that has to be thought deeply. In this series of studies, we conduct in-depth analysis of various industries with a focus on the post-epidemic era, and look forward to corresponding investment opportunities and risks.
1 The post-epidemic era will change the competitive landscape of new energy vehicles and parts
Since the beginning of 2022, the new crown epidemic has once again struck the country, resulting in Shanghai, Jilin and other provinces and cities being forced to be in a state of full or partial regional lockdown. This round of epidemic has had a severe impact on both the supply and demand sides of China's auto industry, resulting in a sharp decline in domestic auto sales in April. According to data from the Passenger Car Association, domestic wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense fell 43.0% year-on-year in April and 47.8% month-on-month; retail sales in April fell 35.5% year-on-year and 34.0% month-on-month.
On the supply side, the closure and control of the two major auto industries in Shanghai and Jilin has forced SAIC, FAW Group, Tesla and other auto companies as well as thousands of parts and components supporting companies to suspend production and reduce production, which directly affects domestic auto production; in addition to the shutdown of factories, The logistics links in the sealed-off areas are blocked, and the complete vehicle and parts factories cannot normally feed and ship materials, which makes the domestic automobile supply chain in a state of high tension or even partial rupture, which restricts the production level of domestic car companies. Great Wall, Dongfeng Nissan and other car companies The chain is difficult to stop production.
On the demand side, on the one hand, the epidemic has reduced the overall income of consumers, and it is expected that some car purchase needs will be delayed or put on hold; on the other hand, dealerships and experience stores in Shanghai and other places have been forced to close due to the epidemic, and the flow of dealers has been interrupted. It is difficult to complete a series of car purchase links such as car viewing, price inquiry, test drive, and car ordering, resulting in restricted car purchase demand. In addition, March-April is usually the peak period for new car launches. The postponement or cancellation of offline auto shows such as the Beijing Auto Show makes the marketing effect of car companies less than expected, and the attention of new cars will also be affected.
Entering May, the domestic epidemic situation has gradually improved. FAW Group, SAIC Group, Tesla and other auto companies and supporting parts companies have resumed work and production, and the supply side of the automotive industry has begun to recover. However, the impact of the epidemic on the demand side of automobiles may be more long-term, especially for the new energy automobile industry, which continued to grow rapidly before the epidemic. Big change.
It is expected that the new energy vehicle industry will accelerate the reshuffle in the post-epidemic era, and new energy vehicle companies with weak products and technologies will be eliminated at an accelerated pace. Before the epidemic, all major new energy vehicle companies fully enjoyed the market dividend of the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales. After the end of the 3-5 year bonus period, some new energy vehicle companies with weaker products will gradually enter the phase of elimination; after the epidemic, consumption Changes in consumer income levels will affect the market structure of new energy vehicles: consumers of high-end models will suffer less purchasing power in the post-epidemic era, so the demand for high-end brand models will not be affected much; the purchasing power of consumers of mid- and low-end models after the epidemic The decline is more significant, which leads them to pay more attention to factors such as product power and cost-effectiveness of mid-to-low-end models. Therefore, Volkswagen-positioned car companies with high product power are more able to attract low-income people, so as to seize market share in the post-epidemic era; while lack of product power After the epidemic, the mid-to-low-end models will no longer be popular with low-income people, and sales will decline rapidly, resulting in an accelerated decline in the market share of the corresponding car companies. It is expected that after the epidemic, some new energy vehicle companies with weak products and technical strength will be eliminated at an accelerated pace.
The parts industry will also be differentiated after the epidemic, and several types of companies are expected to have better prospects. Before the epidemic, many parts and components supporting companies could achieve good development following the development wave of the new energy market, but the decline in the demand side after the epidemic will gradually disappear the overall market dividend, and the competition in the parts industry will become more intense. We judge the following parts and components The company will stand out in the post-epidemic era: (1) As the leading new energy car companies seize more market share with their competitive advantages, the parts companies that are backed by the leading car companies will also obtain more orders to compete in the industry (2) Some parts and components companies with strong comprehensive strength will enhance their comprehensive competitiveness by expanding categories and upgrading products, and occupy an advantageous position in the post-epidemic era; (3) Some parts companies with relatively strong capabilities and relatively complete product layouts , Parts companies with strong R&D and production capacity actively implement the tier0.5 cooperation model to vehicle customers, and provide integrated system integration products to vehicle companies, thereby increasing the value of bicycles and enhancing their own role in the industry chain. The right to speak.
Related: CNC machining car parts
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