The short-term manufacturing boom is under pressure and affects the machine tool market demand. As a general-purpose machinery and equipment, the level of demand for machine tools is closely related to the prosperity of the downstream manufacturing industry. As a "barometer" of the prosperity of the manufacturing industry, the PMI index can more clearly reflect the prosperity and cycle of the current manufacturing industry. Recently, due to the repeated domestic epidemics that have had a greater impact on the manufacturing supply chain, the shutdown of some manufacturing companies has had a greater impact on the prosperity of the manufacturing industry. The PMI indexes in March and April 2022 were 49.5% and 47.4%, respectively. Both are lower than the boom line, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment and industrial added value also shows a downward trend. According to our judgment, with the gradual easing of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places, the national manufacturing boom is expected to be restored.
The electric intelligentization of automobiles has arrived, and the production of electric vehicles has created new demands for machine tools. The automobile manufacturing industry is the industry with the largest demand for metal cutting machine tools. With the gradual popularization of electric vehicles, changes in its product structure have a significant impact on the machine tool industry. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles are completely different in terms of platform, structure, and power. Its specific batteries, electronic controls, motors, and intelligent components need to be re-customized and developed, which is expected to drive new demand for machine tools. . At the same time, for hybrid vehicles, since they still retain the internal combustion engine system, their original processing requirements for machine tools have basically not changed. At the same time, the addition of the three-electric system will increase their demand for metal cutting. According to the forecast of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, by 2026, the sales volume of hybrid vehicles in my country is expected to reach 1.36 million units, which will significantly promote the demand for machine tools.
The booming aerospace market is expected to increase the demand for high-end CNC machine tools. In 2021, the market size of China's aerospace industry will reach 893.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, and it is in a stage of rapid and vigorous development.
The application of new materials in the aerospace field and the complexity of structural parts have accelerated the demand for machine tool renewal, which in turn has increased the demand for high-end machine tools. In addition, aerospace equipment manufacturing and processing have a high demand for high-end CNC machine tools. The aerospace equipment manufacturing industry generally requires large, high-speed, precision, multi-axis and high-efficiency CNC machine tools. Combined with the characteristics of aerospace equipment processing, the aerospace industry will require high-speed machining centers in the future. The demand for high-end machine tools such as 5-axis machining centers and 5-axis high-speed gantry milling machines will continue to increase.
The technological upgrade of 3C products drives the renewal of machine tools and equipment. According to IDC, global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 5.3% in 2021 to 1.35 billion units, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to remain at around 3.5% in 2023 and beyond. At the same time, with the comprehensive sinking of 5G technology and the further enrichment of terminal products, the penetration rate of 5G is expected to accelerate. According to the IDC report, the growth rate of 5G equipment shipments will reach 117% in 2021. The steady development and technological upgrading of the mobile phone market will play a good role in promoting the renewal and upgrading of machine tool products. In addition, the steady progress of 5G network construction will drive the demand for machine tool products: in 2020, more than 600,000 5G base stations will be built in China. The compound growth rate was 15.62%. The increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones and base stations will accelerate the upgrading of processing equipment represented by CNC machining centers.